§ Mr. Bowdenasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what would be the net saving in a full year and in the financial year 1983–84 if social security benefits and pensions were increased by (a)½ per cent.,(b) 1 per cent., (c) 1½ per cent. and (d) 3 per cent. less than inflation at the November 1983 uprating; and what would be the overall saving on each benefit.
§ Mr. RossiMy hon. Friend may find it helpful to have a ready reckoner of the effect on expenditure which can be applied to any percentage change. Each 1 per cent. change at the November 1983 uprating would have the following effect on social security expenditure:
1983–84 1984–85 £ million Retirement pension 52 148 Invalidity benefit 6 16 Unemployment benefit 6 16 Child benefit 14 40 Supplementary benefit —long term rate 5 12 —ordinary rate 10 25 Other benefits 11 34 Total* 104 291 * Overall effect on all benefits.
§ Mr. Mike Thomasasked the Secretary of State for Social Services by what criteria a claimant who ceases to claim, or whose benefit is reduced, is judged to have done so as a result of unemployment review for the purposes of form B151.
§ Mr. RossiUnemployment review officers record on form B 151 the numbers of claimants who stop claiming benefit within eight weeks of their cases being reviewed, or before interview but after a letter asking them to attend is sent unless the reason is not connected with the review, for example, if the claimant goes to prison. We cannot know, and do not assert, that a claimant who ceases to claim within this time does so as a result of the review, but rather we assume that if he leaves the books after a longer period it is unlikely that that is the direct result of the review.
When the resultant figures are used to estimate benefit savings they are adjusted downwards to allow for the natural departure rate because we know that some of the claimants would have gone to work in the normal course of events, without any special review.