§ Mr. McNallyasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what are the best estimates of his Department of the number of (a) 3 and (b) 4-year-olds in each school year for 1982–83 to 1988–89.
§ Mr. John MacKayThe latest—1979 based—official population projections produced by the Registrar General, which relate to 30 June each year show the following:
(thousands) Age at 30 June 3-year-old 4-year-old 1982 65.0 61.2 1983 66.3 64.8 1984 69.6 66.1 1985 72.0 69.4 1986 73.8 71.7 1987 75.9 73.6 1988 78.1 75.6 1989 80.0 77.8 New—1981 based—projections are now being prepared for publication next year. Projections for younger ages, which involve projecting the number of births in future years, are very speculative, but the new projection will incorporate lower fertility rate assumptions. Consequently the projected numbers of 3 and 4-year-olds will be substantially lower than in the 1979 based projection, possibly as much as 12 per cent. lower from 1986.