§ Mr. Skeetasked the Secretary of State for Energy when, and for how long, he estimates the United Kingdom continental shelf will peak in oil production; what rate of drilling will be required to maintain self-sufficiency; how this compares with exploration and appraisal drilling over the past five years; and what he estimates the daily output of oil will be in the year 2000.
§ Mr. GrayThere are considerable uncertainties in forecasting oil production from the United Kingdom Continental Shelf for even a few years ahead, as was indicated by the production forecast ranges given in my reply to my hon. Friend the hon. Member for Grantham (Mr. Hogg) on 4 March.—[Vol. 19, c.198.] It seems 144W likely that a peak in our oil production will occur some time in the mid-1980s. Thereafter I can only say that I expect production to decline.
My report to Parliament "Development of the oil and gas resources of the United Kingdom 1982" gave details of past drilling activity and the resulting success ratios. Future rates of production cannot be reliably related to the level of drilling.