§ Mr. Alfred Morrisasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what sources his Department uses to cost policy options relating to the effects of changes in indirect taxation rates on consumers.
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweI shall let the right hon. Member have a reply as soon as possible.
§ Mr. Alfred Morrisasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what sources his Department uses to cost policy options on changes in direct taxation rates and thresholds and to estimate the numbers and groups likely to be affected by each option.
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweGenerally speaking, estimates of the aggregate levels of income, profits and so on are obtained from the Treasury's model of the economy and the prospective difference in yield is estimated on the basis of the assumptions set out on page 11 of the "Financial Statement and Budget Report, 1980–81". The distribution of income and information on the incidence of allowances and reliefs are projected from the latest available set of detailed statistics, in particular the Inland Revenue's survey of personal incomes—see, for example, the annual series of volumes entitled "The Survey of Personal Incomes" and "Inland Revenue Statistics", copies of which are in the Library of the House. Suppplementary data from other sources, such as the family expenditure survey, are also used when considering the impact of tax changes on particular groups.