§ Mr. Normantonasked the Secretary of State for Social Services whether he will make a statement about the effect on health services and staff numbers in the National Health Service following the Government's recent decisions on pay.
§ Mr. FowlerI have today issued revised revenue allocations to regional health authorities for 1982–83, which reflect the Government's final pay provision for the NHS announced on 23 June. I have also asked all authorities to revise their staffing plans for the remainder of this financial year in the light of their reduced spending power. The Government have always made it clear that increases in pay must affect the number of jobs. The effect of the final pay offer will be to reduce the number of new jobs in the Health Service this year. I have sought to minimise the effect on existing services by making those authorities with more development money meet a higher proportion of the cost. My Department will discuss the revised manpower estimates with the regions and agree with them new figures for the total number of non-medical staff they expect to employ on 31 March 1983. I would not expect the revised allocations in themselves to result in redundancies.
I have also issued planning assumptions to regions for 1983–84 and 1984–85. These are based on the statement in the expenditure White Paper—Cmnd. 8494—that the Government consider that health authorities should be able to increase efficiency enough to provide further growth in services of about ½ per cent. a year in these years. This has enabled me to continue the Government's policy of reducing the historical differences in health care provision between different parts of the country. However, final figures depend on the outcome of the review of public expenditure in the autumn, and on the decision to be taken then on whether the contribution from the Contingency Reserve to the cost of the final pay provision should be made recurrent.
I have asked health authorities to produce plans covering the next two financial years in the light of these provisional assumptions, and as part of this process to produce in the new year, and then to agree with my Department, targets for the numbers in the main staff groups for March 1984.
I have placed copies of the circular in the library of the House. The attached table sets out the revised allocations for 1982–83 and the provisional assumptions for the following two years.
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Amounts in £ millions at cash prices RHAs Revised RAWP Revenue Assumption Revenue Assumption RAWP Capital Assumptions 1982–83 Cash Limits (Revenue) Differential (Per cent.) (1)* (2)* Differential (Per cent.) 1983–84 1984–85 1983–84 1984–85 1983–84 1984–85 1. Northern 523.9 1.89 552.7 580.6 555.2 583.2 0.55 37.8 38.9 2. Yorkshire 585.0 1.50 617.4 648.9 620.2 651.8 0.60 47.4 49.0 3. Trent 701.1 2.29 741.8 781.7 745.2 785.3 0.90 54.0 57.7 4. E Anglia 291.8 2.63 311.1 330.3 312.5 331.8 1.70 19.6 21.0 5. NW Thames 652.3 0.21 655.0 716.0 687.8 719.0 — 36.6 37.5 6. NE Thames 760.1 0.22 798.2 834.4 801.5 837.8 — 40.9 43.1 7. SE Thames 694.4 0.24 729.1 762.0 732.2 765.2 — 38.4 40.5 8. SW Thames 545.7 0.33 573.1 599.3 575.6 601.8 0.05 34.2 35.1 9. Wessex 417.2 2.13 441.5 465.3 443.5 467.4 0.90 45.5 49.1 10. Oxford 334.2 1.64 354.6 374.8 356.3 376.5 1.20 24.1 27.7 11. S Western 509.2 1.76 538.2 566.4 540.6 569.0 0.75 42.2 45.7 12. W Midlands 811.0 1.64 856.3 900.4 560.3 904.5 0.65 69.7 76.4 13. Mersey 433.6 0.85 455.5 476.5 457.6 478.7 0.10 27.2 28.7 14. N Western 724.2 2.14 764.2 803.2 767.8 806.9 0.60 74.2 73.6 Total 7,983.7 1.32 8,418.7 8,839.8 8,456.3 8,878.9 0.50 591.8 624.0 * Assumption 1 is that the contribution from the Contingency Reserve to the cost of the final pay provision is non-recurrent. Assumption 2 is that the contribution is recurrent. Note: The revised revenue cash limits for 1982–83 are provisional upon parliamentary approval of the necessary supplementary, estimates.