HC Deb 26 April 1982 vol 22 c179W
Mr. Austin Mitchell

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what assumptions are used by him in forecasting the change in the volume of imports and exports of manufactures as a result of each percentage point increase or reduction in gross domestic product.

Mr. Wakeham

There is no simple relationship between the volume of imports and exports of manufactures and gross domestic product. The most recently published version of the Treasury economic model contains estimates of the many relationships which are relevant, and I refer the hon. Member to Her Majesty's Treasury Macroeconomic Model Equation and Variable Listing (December 1980 version) which is available in the House of Commons Library.

Mr. Austin Mitchell

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, further to the reply of 8 April, Official Report, c. 448, concerning the effect of the fall in the real exchange rate on exports, whether he will publish in the Official Report the data used in the Treasury model for the size of the effect and the time lags for (a) exports, (b) exports of manufactures and (c) imports of manufactures.

Mr. Wakeham

I refer the hon. Member to the latest published version of the Treasury model—Her Majesty's Treasury Macroeconomic Model Equation and Variable Listing (December 1980 version)—which is available in the House of Commons Library.