HL Deb 25 November 1981 vol 425 cc844-5WA
Lord Blease

asked Her Majesty's Government:

Whether they will:

  1. (i) indicate whether it is the case that the Interim Report of the Higher Education Review Group for Northern Ireland (Chairman, Sir Henry Chilver) on The Future Structure of Teacher Education in Northern Ireland presents projections in Tables 4.1 and 4.2 of the likely school populations in various age groups up to the year 1995, and that these projections were based on the Government Actuary's Department's January 1978 population estimates;
  2. (ii) present revised estimates of the data in the tables referred to in the light of the most recent population projection of the Government Actuary's Department; and,
  3. (iii) specify in what ways this affects the estimates in the Chilver interim Report of teacher requirements in Northern Ireland.

The Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office (The Earl of Gowrie)

1. Tables 4.1 and 4.2 of the Interim Report of the Higher Education Review Group for Northern Ireland give projections of the likely school populations in various age groups and by school sector up to the year 1995. These projections were based on the Government Actuary's Department, January 1978 population projections.

2. The most recent estimates are based on the Government Actuary's Department January 1980

Thousands
Age Croups 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Aged under 3 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4 7.0 7.0 7.3
4 19.5 19.5 20.3 22.1 22.7 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.0
5 24.9 24.8 24.3 24.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.5 28.1 28.6 29.2 29.8 30.2 30.6 31.0
6 26.2 24.9 24.8 24.1 24.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.1 30.5
7 27.4 26.0 24.5 24.6 24.1 24.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.6 30.0
8 27.9 27.4 26.0 24.7 24.6 24.1 24.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.5
9 28.7 27.8 27.4 25.9 24.7 24.5 24.0 24.4 26.3 26.4 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.4 28.9
10 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.3 25.8 24.6 24.4 23.7 24.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.2
11 29.3 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 25.7 24.3 24.2 23.7 24.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.9 27.5
12 29.7 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.9 25.5 24.2 24.1 23.6 23.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.7
13 30.1 29.6 29.1 28.5 28.1 27.3 26.7 25.4 24.0 23.9 23.4 23.8 25.7 25.9 26.0
14 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.1 23.8 23.7 23.2 23.6 25.5 25.7
15 28.1 27.8 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.4 24.8 23.4 22.2 22.1 21.7 22.0 23.8
16 16.7 17.3 17.5 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.0 14.2 14.2 13.9 14.1
17 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.4
18 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0
Aged 19 and over 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Total 362.5 357.4 352.0 348.2 345.0 341.9 339.8 338.7 338.7 340.0 342.8 347.0 352.7 358.6 365.1

PUPILS IN SCHOOLS AS AT JANUARY OF EACH YEAR, BY SCHOOL TYPES
Thousands
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Nursery Sector 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 10.0 10.0 10.3
Primary Sector 194.3 189.4 185.3 183.4 182.8 182.8 184.5 187.3 191.2 195.7 199.7 203.0 206.7 210.2 213.3
Secondary Sector 159.5 159.0 157.8 155.8 153.3 149.8 145.6 141.3 137.0 133.4 131.8 132.4 133.7 136.1 139.1
Special Schools 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4
All pupils 362.5 357.4 352.0 348.2 345.0 341.9 339.8 338.7 338.7 340.0 342.8 347.0 352.7 358.6 365.1

Column totals may be subject to rounding error.