§ Mr. Skeetasked the Secretary of State for Defence what work is currently being undertaken on the world climate research programme and the Governments commitment thereto; and to what extent it has been found that carbon dioxide from fossil-fueled power stations has and continues to contribute to climatic changes.
§ Mr. GoodhartClimate research, carried out at institutions in many countries, is voluntarily co-ordinated through an international plan, the World Climate Research Programme or WCRP, which sets out agreed aims and priorities. The Joint Scientific Committee, established jointly by the World Meteorological Organisation and the International Council of Scientific Unions, oversees the programme and makes recommendations concerning it.
Much of the work done in the Meteorological Office makes a contribution to the WCRP, including the making and analysis of routine observations, the development of improved techniques—including satellites—for observing climatic variables and the study of physical processes such 183W as ocean-atmosphere interchanges. The most specific climate research work, however, is the development and use of numerical models which simulate the processes responsible for climate and allow predictions to be made about the effects of changes such as an increase in carbon dioxide. A group of about 40 scientists in the Meterological Office is working with such models, which have to be very elaborate if realistic simulations are to be achieved. Particular attention at the moment is being given to the role of clouds, the effects of interactions with the oceans and the consequences of increasing carbon dioxide. A powerful new computer is now being installed, which will improve the quality and range of the model simulations.
Other research related to the WCRP is being undertaken by the research councils and in the universities. The whole range of climate research work in the United Kingdom was reviewed—and is described more fully—in a report by an interdepartmental committee published in 1980—"Climatic change", Cabinet Office, HMSO ISBN 0 11 630813 3.
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing, mainly, it is believed, because of the burning of fossil fuels. Between 1958 and 1979, measurements show a globally averaged increase of about 7 per cent. Based on forecasts of the probable consumption of fossil fuels over the next few decades, it has been estimated that a doubling of the concentration is likely by a time in the first half of next century. There is general agreement among meteorologists that such a doubling of carbon dioxide would produce a substantial global warming. Different model simulations give different results, but most estimates of the average rise in temperature near the earth's surface lie in the range 1–3°C. However, the warming would not be uniform over the earth's surface and some places might experience a cooling. Also, there would be accompanying changes in rainfall and wind whose effects might be more significant for society than the warming itself. The aim of current research is to predict the magnitude and global distribution of these climatic changes with more confidence and accuracy.
The model simulations suggest that the much smaller change in carbon dioxide that has already occurred would produce a temperature change of less than one degree. Such a change would scarcely be detectable against the background of naturally occurring climatic variations, and although some workers have claimed to have found a correlation between the increase in carbon dioxide and recent climatic trends, most meteorologists accept that no clear correlation has yet been established.