§ Mr. Austin Mitchellasked the Prime Minister what is the shortfall in trend output and in the national stock of wealth since May 1979; when she expects trend output to be resumed; and whether and when she expects the rate of growth to accelerate to enable the loss of wealth to be made up.
§ The Prime MinisterSuch calculations as the hon. Member seeks cannot reliably be made. An important element in any such calculations would be an estimate of the underlying trend growth in productivity. The trend in recent years has been significantly different from that experienced in the 1960s and early 1970s and an extrapolation of it would not provide a firm guide to current and future trends.
My right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer has today published "The Economic Prospects to the end of 1982". This shows that growth in GDP between 1981 and 1982 is expected to be 1 per cent., close to the trend growth of output between 1973 and 1979. Prospects for later years are not available, but progress towards restoring sustained growth in GDP will depend on the rate at which inflation is brought down. The Government's policies are aimed at achieving this, and much depends on the behaviour of wages in achieving a favourable balance between output and prices.