§ Mr. Frank Allaunasked the Secretary of State for Energy if he will take steps to improve his Department's forecasting 108W methods for estimating electricity consumption; and if he will publish in full the comparable costs of the complete nuclear cycle compared to other methods of electricity production.
§ Mr. Norman LamontThe Department's methodology for forecasting electricity demand was published in Energy Paper No. 29. It is continuously reviewed and improved.
The CEGB published details of the comparative costs of generation in 1978–79 from existing nuclear (magnox), coal-fired and oil-fired stations commissioned after 1 April 1965 in its annual report for 1978–79 and gave a further breakdown of the costs in table 11 of its Statistical Yearbook for that year. For nuclear stations the inclusive fuel cycle costs quoted covered all stages of the fuel cycle. I am advised that figures for 1979–80 will be published next month in the board's annual report for that year. These figures do not provide the basis for future investment decisions. The CEGB in paragraph 23 of its memorandum on the nuclear power programme submitted to the Select Committee on Energy summarised the result of its current appraisal of the net effective cost of a new nuclear station (including fuel costs) and a new coal-fired station. Copies of energy paper No. 29, the CEGB's annual report and statistical yearbook 1978–79 and the CEGB memorandum are available in the Library of the House.