§ Mr. Marlowasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if net migration added to or subtracted from the figure for live births is defined at net replacement of population; what, for each of the last 20 years, has been the coloured percentage of the net replacement of United Kingdom population; and what is the likely outcome with regard to the future mix of the United Kingdom population.
§ Sir George Young[pursuant to his reply, 18 June 1980, c. 560]: Information is readily available only from 1966. The table shows estimates of births in Great Britain to the population of New Commonwealth and Pakistani (NCWP) ethnic origin, including births of mixed origin, plus net migration of persons of NCWP origin, expressed as a percentage of all births in, plus net migration to, Great Britain.
Mid-year to mid-year Percentage 1966–67 10 1967–68 13 1968–69 12 1969–70 12 1970–71 11 1971–72 11 1972–73 13 1973–74 11 1974–75 13 1975–76 13 1976–77 13 1977–78 13 The future mix of the population depends not only on births and net migration, but also on deaths and rates of inter-marriage between the indigenous population and that of NCWP ethnic origin.
Population trends no. 16 presented medium term projections of the NCWP population. On the stated assumptions about the future, those of wholly NCWP origin account, by 1991, for between 4.5 and 5.3 per cent. of the total population of Great Britain—as compared to 3.0 per cent. in 1976—those of mixed origin might account for a further half per cent. 500W or so. Beyond that date the future becomes increasingly speculative, but the article suggested that by the year 2001 the population of wholly NCWP ethnic origin may be between 5 and 7 per cent. of the total population.