§ Mr. Deakinsasked the Secretary of State for Trade what was the current account trade deficit for 1979, excluding the effects of North Sea oil.
§ Mr. LawsonI have been asked to reply.
It is not possible to estimate what the current balance might have been in 1979 without North Sea oil. The effects of North Sea oil production and development on, for example, the exchange rate are very difficult to establish, and it is equally difficult to go on from there and estimate what the current balance might have been if the exchange rate had been different.
The most recent estimate of the direct contributions of oil and gas to the current balance in 1979 is £8½ billion, but this figure measures only the direct and identifiable effects such as the value of oil and gas production, the value of foreign oil company profits and the imports of goods and services for the North Sea programme. The latest estimate of the current balance for 1979 is a deficit of £2.4 billion. The balance of trade in goods excluding oil was also in deficit by £2.4 billion.