§ Mr. Parrisasked the Secretary of State for Energy what were the projected total world oil reserves as assessed in each of the following years: 1945, 1950, 1955, 1960, 94W 1965, 1970, 1975 and 1980; and what was the estimated period of time such reserves would last made in each of those years.
§ Mr. GrayRegular oil reserve estimates dating back to the last war exist only for "published proved" reserves: that is the volume of oil remaining in the ground which geological and engineering information indicate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. No historic estimates are available of the time such reserves were expected to last, and so in the following table the reserves are compared with the level of oil production in the same years.
World "Published Proved" oil reserves, end year billion barrels World oil production billion barrels Ratio reserves to production 1938 34.3 2.0 17 1950 90.0 4.0 22 1955 190.0 5.9 32 1960 298.3 8.0 37 1965 357.3 11.6 31 1970 620.7 17.5 35 1975 666.1 20.1 33 1979 649.2 24.0 27 Source: BP Statistical Reviews. The series was broken by the war, and 1979 is the final year available.
From time to time estimates have been made of world "ultimately recoverable reserves", which include an allowance for new discoveries and enhanced recovery techniques. These estimates have been made by a number of different authorities, and so are not always directly comparable. A list of these estimates from the 1940's onwards, accompanied by the necessary caveats about comparability, is given on page 115 of "Energy: Global Prospects to 2000", the 1977 report of the Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies.