§ Mr. Austin Mitchellasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what was the increase in relative export prices in each quarter of 1977 and in the first quarter of 1978; what were the forecasts made for these five quarters at the end of 1976; what conclusions were drawn from the forecasts regarding (a) the level of wholesale and retail prices six and 12 months later, respectively, (b) output and employment a year later and (c) imports and exports of manufactures nine months later; what changes would have been made to these conclusions if the actual figures had been substituted for the forecast relative export prices; and what was the outturn for (a), (b) and (c).
§ Sir Geoffrey Howeasked The increase in prices of United Kingdom manufactured exports relative to competitors' prices, expressed as a percentage increase on the previous quarter, and taken from page 46 of the June 1979 issue of Economic Trends, were as follows:
per cent. 1977 Q1 5 1977 Q2 3½ 1977 Q3 1½ 1977 Q4 3½ 1978 Q1 3 The forecasts made in 1976 were the responsibility of the previous Government.
66WThe Industry Act forecast released on 15 December 1976 stated that the level of competitiveness which had then been reached was assumed to be maintained in 1977; and that the level of retail prices was forecast to rise 15 per cent. between the fourth quarters of 1976 and 1977.
The increases in wholesale output prices from the fourth quarter of 1976 were 11½ per cent. by the second quarter of 1977; and 16½ per cent. by the fourth quarter of 1977. The increases in retail prices over the same period were 10 per cent. and 13 per cent. Output, as measured by total GDP, rose by 2 per cent. between the fourth quarters of 1976 and 1977; and total employment by 0.1 per cent. The volume of imports of manufactures rose 5½ per cent. between the fourth quarter of 1976 and the third quarter of 1977; and the volume of exports of manufactures by 10 per cent. over the same period.