§ Mr. Austin Mitchellasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will publish in the Official Report a table, based on the Treasury model, showing the actual and forecast results for each half year from 1 January to the end of 1984.
§ Sir Geoffrey Howeasked No.
§ Mr. Austin Mitchellasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he has updated the Treasury model to take account of the changes associated with the Budget and the changes in the value of the green pound; what is his latest forecast of the growth of company gross trading profits and other income in each of the years 1979 to 1982 compared to the years 1974 to 1978, as an index based on 1975 prices and assuming that the current monetary targets are not relaxed and that the index of competitiveness remains at the present estimated level, based on estimated July 1979 export prices at the current rates of exchange; what are the consequential changes in the forecast for dividends, taxes paid in the United Kingdom, taxes 62W and profits paid abroad, and net capital expenditure; and if he will provide similar figures for manufacturing industry and the financial sector.
§ Sir Geoffrey Howeasked The Treasury model is constantly being updated. The forecast published at Budget time took account of the estimated effects of the Budget and of likely changes in the green pound. The forecasts requested for the period 1979–82 are not available.
§ Mr. Austin Mitchellasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will publish in the Official Report a table based on the Treasury Model showing for each half year from 1 January 1976 to the end of 1984 for each of the following variables what (a) has happened and is forecast to happen from now on if the present monetary targets are maintained and the index of competitiveness, at the estimated July 1979 export prices in terms of the current rates of exchange, remains unchanged, and (b) would have happened if the monetary targets laid down by the International Monetary Fund in the letter of intent in 1976 had been the ceiling and the index of competitiveness in the fourth quarter of 1976 had not been exceeded, showing (i) the indices of production, imports and exports of manufactures as a percentage of the 1975 volume, (ii) real gross domestic product, real disposable incomes, and real average wages and salaries as a percentage of 1975, (iii) employment, unemployment, including school leavers, and employment in manufacturing, (iv) total public expenditure and the public sector borrowing requirement in real terms as a percentage of 1975, (v) the gross trading profits of corporations in real terms as a percentage of 1975, (vi) the current account balance of payments—total, invisible, visibles and manufactures, (vii) output per head in real terms—manufacturing, North Sea oil and gas, and other economic activity, (viii) the money supply in terms of M3 and domestic credit expansion, the savings ratio and minimum lending rate and (ix) the terms of trade for manufactures, goods, and services.
§ Sir Geoffrey Howeasked Such estimates are not available, and would be very expensive to produce. On the general issue of simulations, or alternative forecasts, using the Treasury model, I refer the hon. 63W Member to the reply to his other questions on the impact of changes in the exchange rate.