§ Mr. Knoxasked the Secretary of State for Employment whether his Department produces forecasts of the number of persons registered as unemployed in forthcoming months, in total or for special categories; and, if not, why this is not done.
§ Mr. GoldingFor internal working purposes my Department takes a view on prospects for employment and unemployment on various assumptions about the growth of output. This is done in total and for the separate category of school leavers. These views are not published for reasons given in a reply by my right hon. Friend, the Minister of State, Treasury, on 6 June 1978 to a question by the hon. Member for Chertsey and Walton (Mr. Pattie).—[Vol. 951, c. 129.] The reasons are that forecasts of employment and unemployment can be made only on the basis of the expected growth of output in the economy as a whole, and a stable relationship between output growth and changes in employment and unemployment. But the relationship between output and employment has been particularly erratic in recent years and so any forecast of employment and unemployment would be subject to an enormous margin of error.