§ Mr. Knoxasked the Secretary of State for Employment whether his Department will compile estimates of the number of jobs that will be lost if the increase in overall earnings during phase 4 is (a) 5 per cent., (b) 8 per cent., (c) 10 per cent., (d) 12 per cent., (e) 15 per cent., (f) 20 per cent. and (g) 40 per cent.
§ Mr. Denzil DaviesI have been asked to reply.
Such estimates can be made only by carrying out simulations on the Treasury's macroeconomic model of the economy. The model is unreliable when it is dealing with rapid inflation, and as I said in my reply of 5 March—[Vol. 963, c. 560–1]—the output-employment relationship is insecure. For these reasons, and for reasons similar to those given to the hon. Member for Perth and East Perthshire (Mr. Crawford) on 15 January—[Vol. 960, c. 669]—I regret that I cannot provide simulation results.