§ Mr. Ridleyasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, further to his recent speech to the annual banquet of the Diplomatic and Commonwealth Writers Association, whether he will estimate the deflationary effect of the surpluses of some OPEC countries and, on a comparable basis, the deflationary effect of the present current account surpluses of Japan, Switzerland and Germany.
§ Mr. Robert SheldonThe following table shows the surpluses of Japan, Germany and Switzerland in 1976 and 1977 and OECD Secretariat estimates of the OPEC surplus in those years.
$bn 1976 1977 Japan … … 3.7 11.1 Germany … … 3.4 3.5 Switzerland … … 3.5 3.2 Sub total … … 10.6 17.8 OPEC … … 42* 40* * Source: OECD "Economic Outlook" December 1977. The OPEC surplus is likely to fall sharply this year, given the slackness of demand for oil. There is a substantial risk, if appropriate policies are not adopted, that the surpluses of Germany and Japan will increase. In 1977, together with Switzerland, their combined surplus was already of the same order as that of Saudi Arabia.