§ Mr. Powellasked the Secretary of State for Social Services in the light of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys estimate of 2,000 to 3,000 second generation New Commonwealth and Pakistan births per annum by the mid-1970s, what are the corresponding estimates for 1978, 1980 and 1985.
§ Mr. EnnalsNo reliable information is available on the numbers of births to the first generation of women of New Commonwealth and Pakistani (NCWP) ethnic origin to be born in this country. The estimate of 2,000 to 3,000 second generation births in 1976 was based on an estimate of the number of first generation women of child bearing age and a broad assumption about their fertility rates. Future fertility rates are conjectural; but because of the age structure of the British-born element of the NCWP population, the number of first generation women attaining age 20, and therefore entering the age span where most childbearing occurs, can be expected to more than double over the five years from 1976 to 1981 and to quadruple over the 10 years from 1976 to 1986. The Registrar General is preparing revised projections of the population of NCWP ethnic origin and will be publishing them in due course.