§ Mr. Lawrenceasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to the answers to Questions on unemployment at Prime Minister's Question Time on 20th July, what is the difference between an assumption of future unemployment 682W trends and a forecast of future unemployment trends.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettA forecast is intended to give a quantified view of what, within reasonable margins of error, is likely to happen. In the case of unemployment to which the hon. Member refers it is not possible to make a satisfactory forecast because the historic relationship between the growth of output and the level of unemployment no longer appears to hold. The figures referred to in the Prime Minister's answer represent a working assumption which was used last autumn for the purpose of projecting social security expenditure.