§ Mr. Warrenasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what growth rate per annum is required in the gross national product to halve the present unemployment by the end of each of the following calendar years: 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982.
§ Mr. Denzil DaviesI would refer the hon. Member to my right hon. Friend's speech in the Income Tax (Personal Allowances) debate of 10th November 1977—[Vol. 938, c. 880.] He said there that as the productive potential of the economy was probably growing at about752W 3 per cent a year we could expect a fall in unemployment, after some time lag, when GDP grew at or above this rate. He also pointed out the difficulty of forecasting employment and unemployment. The relationship between changes in employment and changes in output is very uncertain. The rate of expansion itself depends crucially on the success of our efforts to contain inflation.