HC Deb 24 November 1977 vol 939 cc846-7W
Mr. Ridley

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will list the successive forecasts which he has made of the public sector borrowing requirement in 1977–78, specifying the date and anticipated size of the public sector borrowing requirement on each occasion and the causes of any revisions.

Mr. Joel Barnett

My right hon. Friend gave an estimate of £8.7 billion in the Letter of Intent of 15th December 1976 to the IMF. In his Budget Statement to the House on 29th March this year he gave a forecast of £8½ billion. This was revised to £7½ billion in his statement of 26th October. Relevant factors relating to the revision are given in the note "Economic Prospects to end-1978" published on 26th October, to which I would refer the hon. Member.

Single man Married man with 2 children under 11
Percentage of income taken in Tax plus Percentage of income taken in Tax plus
Year Tax NIC NIC Tax NIC NIC
% % % % % %
1945–6 23.0 1.7 24.6 4.4 1.7 6.0
1946–47 14.9 3.3 18.2 3.2 3.2
1947–48 14.8 3.1 17.9 3.0 3.0
1948–9 12.3 3.6 15.9 3.4 3.4
1949–50 12.6 3.4 16.0 3.3 3.4
1950–51 11.0 3.3 14.2 0.5 3.2 3.7
1951–52 13.1 3.1 16.2 0.7 3.0 3.6
1952–53 11.2 3.2 14.4 3.1 3.1
1953–54 10.6 3.0 13.6 0.3 2.9 3.2
1954–55 11.8 2.8 14.6 1.0 2.7 3.7
1955–56 12.7 3.0 15.7 0.4 2.9 3.3
1956–57 13.5 2.8 16.3 0.8 2.7 3.6
1957–58 14.2 2.9 17.1 1.5 2.9 4.4
1958–59 14.5 3.9 18.4 1.8 3.7 5.6
1959–60 14.4 3.7 18.1 2.3 3.6 5.9
1960–61 15.1 3.4 18.5 3.2 3.3 6.6
1961–62 15.5 5.1 20.6 3.7 5.0 8.7
1962–63 16.0 4.9 20.9 4.1 4.8 8.9
1963–64 16.1 5.5 21.6 3.0 5.3 8.3
1964–65 17.2 5.3 22.5 4.5 5.2 9.7
1965–66 18.9 5.4 24.3 5.9 5.3 11.3
1966–67 19.3 5.5 24.8 6.5 5.4 11.9
1967–68 20.0 5.8 25.7 7.4 5.7 13.1
1968–69 20.8 5.6 26.4 10.8 5.4 16.2
1969–70 21.7 5.2 26.8 12.5 5.0 17.5
1970–71 22.9 5.8 28.7 14.2 5.6 19.8
1971–72 22.4 5.8 28.1 13.1 5.6 18.7
1972–73 20.5 5.9 26.4 12.3 5.8 18.2
1973–74 21.6 5.9 27.5 14.6 5.8 20.4
1974–75 25.0 5.9 31.0 16.8 5.8 22.6
1975–76 27.5 5.5 33.0 20.0 5.4 25.3
1976–77 27.8 5.8 33.5 19.3 5.6 24.9
1977–78 25.5 5.8 31.3 17.1 5.6 22.7

For years up to and including 1969–70, average earnings are the Department of Employment's estimates of the average earnings of full-time male manual workers in October of each year, except for 1945–46 where the figures relate to July. For later years the figures are based on the average of the New Earnings Survey estimates of the average earnings of full-time male manual workers in April at the start and finish of each income tax year, except for 1977–78, where the April

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