§ Mr. Parryasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if he will make a statement on the Government's official prediction of an increase in the birth rate in the foreseeable future; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. MoyleProjections of the population incorporating assumptions about the future birth rate are prepared by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, and these are used by Government Departments. A detailed commentary on the reasons for assuming a future upturn in the birth rate is contained in "Population projections, 1974–2014, Series PP2 No. 5" (HMSO). Because of the uncertainty surrounding the future trend in annual births, projections based on varying birth rate assumptions have been published in "Variant population projections, 1974–2011, Series PP2 No. 6 "(HMSO). The most recent projections, based on the 1975 population, incorporating somewhat revised assumptions, have been issued in summary form in an OPCS monitor and I am sending my hon. Friend a copy, 303W together with the monitor containing the provisional figure of births in 1976.