§ Mr. John Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence how much money has been spent on computers and other sophisticated aids to improving the accuracy of weather forecasts during the last 10 years.
§ Mr. WellbelovedThe total cost of weather forecasting computers and associated equipments purchased for the 799W Meteorological Office over the 10 years 1967–76 is approximately £5 million.
It is difficult to say how much of this has been spent specifically to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts since these equipments also serve a variety of other purposes including the production and direct transmission of print-outs, charts and records of upper winds data to airline computers etc.; provision of more detailed forecasts for two to three days ahead; development of medium term long range and seasonal forecasts; and assessing climatic change.
The main computer is also essential for the collection and speedy processing of quantities of data that could not be handled in any other way and which enable the Office to deal with specialist problems and requests for advice from such as the water, gas, electricity and offshore oil industries.
A large amount of computer time is utilised for the Office's research programme that embraces a wide range of meteorology-related subjects such as the general circulation of the atmosphere, the effect of wind-shear on aircraft landings, upper air pollution, the use of radar for rainfall prediction and the effects of large scale use of supersonic transport aircraft.
As a result of all these applications the work output of the Meteorological Office, measured in terms of inquiries dealt with and forecasts and other special services provided, has greatly increased over the 10-year period while the number of staff employed has declined.
§ Mr. John Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence what has been the improvement in accuracy of weather forecasts issued during the last 10 years.
§ Mr. WellbelovedAs I said in reply to the hon. Member for Devon, West (Mr. Mills) on 23rd December 1976—[Vol. 923, c.250]—there has been steady improvement in the accuracy of short-range forecasts in recent years, particularly in respect of the outlook for two or three days ahead where the use of computers has been particularly helpful. Improvements in predicting upper winds over Europe and the Atlantic have been even more striking, and for winds at 20,000 and 40,000 feet forecasting errors have been almost halved.
800WDetailed figures for the period up to 1973 are given in the annual report of the Meteorological Office for that year. This information is at present being updated and I will send my hon. Friend the latest figures when they become available.
§ Mr. John Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence what criteria are used for assessing the correctness of forecasts; and if he is satisfied with the scientific objectivity of the methods used in judging the correctness of weather forecasts.
§ Mr. WellbelovedThere is no simple answer, as the criteria vary according to the nature and content of the forecast. The methods employed are described in some detail in the annual report of the Meteorological Office for 1973, a copy of which is in the Library.