§ Mr. Skeetasked the Secretary of State for Energy in calculating his Department's energy forecast over a 20-year period, what is his estimate of the price of crude oil in real terms in the years 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2000.
§ Dr. J. Dickson MabonThe forecast of United Kingdom energy supply and demand set out in Annex 1 of the "Working Document on Energy Policy" was based on the assumption that the real price of crude oil rises to at least double its present level by about the year 2000. It is impossible to predict with any certainty the path of oil prices between now and the end of the century, but the present situation in the market for crude oil, together with the prospective build up of supplies from the North Sea, Alaska, and Mexico, should reduce the likelihood of significant increases in real oil prices before the early 1980s. I would refer the hon. Member to Annex 1 and Chapter 3 of "Energy Commission Paper Number 1: Working Document on Energy Policy". copies of which are available from the Department of Energy library.