§ Mr. John Garrettasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his latest estimate of Government revenues from North Sea oil and gas for each year from the present until the middle of the 1980s.
§ Mr. Denzil Davies, pursuant to his reply [Official Report, 6th April 1977; Vol. 929, c. 557], circulated the following further information:
The Government revenue from North Sea oil and gas depends on a number of factors which cannot be precisely estimated for particular future years. These include changes in the price of oil, the exchange rate, costs and the production programme.
On the basis of oil prices in 1976, before the recent OPEC increase and the latest cost and production forecasts, the combined yield from royalty, petroleum revenue tax and corporation tax until the end of 1980 is expected to be in the region of £5½ billion at 1976 prices.
During the early 1980s the yearly revenue is expected to rise to a level around £4¼ billion.