§ Mr. Watkinsonasked the Secretary of State for Energy what are the latest estimates of the effects of the sale of North Sea oil on the balance of payments in 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1980.
§ Dr. J. Dickson MahonThe latest estimates of the effects of the sale of North Sea oil on the balance of payments for the years 1976 to 1980, inclusive, are those which were given in the July issue of the "Economic Progress Report", published by Her Majesty's Treasury. The value of oil production is represented in that report as Oil exports/imports saved, including insurance and freight.
822WThe figures are as follows:
£ million at current prices 1976 1,090 1977 2,250 1978 3,400 1979 5.150 1980 6,600 These estimates are based on a complex analysis involving a number of more or less uncertain assumptions, some of which even for the current year will already have become outdated since the report was published.