HC Deb 22 November 1976 vol 919 cc821-2W
Mr. Watkinson

asked the Secretary of State for Energy what are the latest estimates of the effects of the sale of North Sea oil on the balance of payments in 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1980.

Dr. J. Dickson Mahon

The latest estimates of the effects of the sale of North Sea oil on the balance of payments for the years 1976 to 1980, inclusive, are those which were given in the July issue of the "Economic Progress Report", published by Her Majesty's Treasury. The value of oil production is represented in that report as Oil exports/imports saved, including insurance and freight.

The figures are as follows:

£ million at current prices
1976 1,090
1977 2,250
1978 3,400
1979 5.150
1980 6,600

These estimates are based on a complex analysis involving a number of more or less uncertain assumptions, some of which even for the current year will already have become outdated since the report was published.