HC Deb 03 November 1976 vol 918 cc590-2W
Mr. Newton

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will indicate the principal occasions since February 1974 on which he has publicly warned the nation that a reduction in living standards is inevitable and the form of words used on each occasion.

1976 Mr. Healey

Since I became Chancellor I have drawn attention more often than I can remember to the related themes of the need to pay our way in the world, the necessity of channelling resources into exports and investment rather than private or public consumption, and the urgency of the fight against inflation. I have frankly pointed out the implications for our standard of living in the present and the immediate future of these inter-related problems and the measures required to tackle them. The following selected extracts will perhaps illustrate this.

Budget night broadcastth MarchPrices as a whole are bound to go up this year even faster than they did last year. The doubling in the price of oil at the end of last year will still be hitting the shopping basket for months to come; and the output we lost in the three-day week will be hitting us in all sorts of ways for the rest of the year. So the nation as a whole cannot expect much increase in its living standards until the year is out and, of course, it's all made worse by the fact that we are not paying our way in the world.

Election special on BBC TVnd OctoberIn the next year or two there isn't scope for general increases in living standards although I think there is scope for increasing standards for the very poor and also for people who are prepared to make genuine efficiency agreements to improve productivity in industry. But for the mass of the people no increase for a year or two.

Mansion House Dinnerth OctoberThere is an analogy with 1945 also in the scale and nature of our national economic problem. Now, as then, we must adjust our whole way of life to meet a serious worsening of the conditions in which we must pay our way in the world; we must forgo any increase in our living standards as a nation until the fundamental readjustment has been carried through. Now, as then, we need a degree of national unity which can only be achieved through a fairer sharing of the inevitable sacrifice.

New Year Message in "Financial Times"st DecemberFaced with the uncertain prospect abroad and the need to shift resources at home we must accept a standstill in living standards and private consumption. If the weakest are to be protected, some people will face some fall in their consumption.

Panoramath FebruaryThat depends on many things which I can't accurately predict. The last time we analysed this in great detail we thought we could increase output by the end of the year about 2 per cent. over what it was last year. In that case we may be able to maintain living standards but if we fail to do that and this can depend as much on foreign demand for our products as on anything we do at home, that could mean a fall in living standards.

Budget broadcastth AprilWhen the Government first got into office just over a year ago we set ourselves a target to get Britain moving up again in the international league table, to start paying our way. We knew it would be tough, and we all warned you that there wouldn't be much room for raising living standards until we'd got it straight. And we believed that people would accept the necessary sacrifice, providing they knew it would be fairly shared.

TV broadcastth JuneWe must base wage settlements next year on what is needed to get down inflation. That will mean sacrifices all round for a short period.

Speech at Labour Party Conferenceth SeptemberLast year we were spending, as a nation, abroad 105 pence for every pound we were earning abroad. We had to borrow the other 5p in every pound.

Radio broadcastth AprilThere's got to be some further fall (in the standard of living) in the next 12 months, but not as big a fall in fact as there's been over the last 12 months. The big fall in living standards has already taken place and don't forget it took place at a time when earnings were rising at a fantastic rate—29 per cent. last year and yet living standards actually fell. That just shows how silly it is to want to be paid in confetti rather than real money.

Mansion House Speechst OctoberWe cannot afford to base our economic growth on an increase in domestic consumption. We must base it on exports, import substitution and investment. Until we have eliminated the deficit on our balance of payments we can afford no increase in our public or private spending. On the contrary. Living standards will have to suffer a further fall before we are paying our way in the world once again. This has been my message for the last two years.