§ Dr. Hampsonasked the Secretary of State for Education and Science (1) if he will list the projections made by his Department since 1970 of the total school population, together with the forecasts for the teacher force which were based on these projections;
(2) what is the number of teachers, including full-time equivalent part-time teachers, which he now estimates will be needed by 1981.
§ Miss Margaret JacksonThe following are projections, made in various years,276W of the numbers of pupils in maintained nursery, primary and secondary schools in England and Wales in 1981, counting each part-time pupil as 0.5:
Projection made in Projected number of pupils in 1981 Target for teachers in 1981 ('000) (000) 1971 … … 9,562 5401 1972 … … 9,447 5102 1973 … … 9,107 1974 … … 8,670 1975 … … 8,584 480–4903 1976 … … 8,522 (4) These varying projections of pupils were based, inter alia, on successive revisions to the population estimates made by the Government Actuary, which in turn reflected the steep decline in the number of children born since 1971.
The assessment of the number of teachers needed in any future year depends upon the staffing standards—and other factors—assumed for the calculation. Various standards have been used in calculations since 1970, according to the purpose of the assessment, and sets of figures have often been produced demonstrating the requirement for various levels of provision.
Projections of the numbers of qualified teachers available in the country have also been made regularly, based on the latest data available on wastage rates, re-entry and other factors, but again alternative projections are frequently made incorporating different assumptions about the future.
From time to time Governments have adopted targets for teacher numbers having regard to these projections of demand and potential supply. The following footnotes qualify the targets given in the above table:
(1) Strictly speaking, this figure is not a target but a projection; before 1972, forecasts of the numbers of teachers likely to be employed were synonymous with the numbers likely to be available.
(2) In Cmnd. 5174 of December 1972 the then Government for the first time indicated a broad policy objective for teacher employment, judged in relation to other educational priorities within the resources then foreseen, which fell below the numbers of potentially available teachers. This objective was to secure by 1981 a teaching force in the schools 10 per cent. above that needed to maintain 277W the staffing standards of 1971, to staff the expansion of nursery education, to increase in-service training and to introduce systematic induction for new teachers. This was estimated at that time to require about 510,000 teachers in 1981. To achieve the standards of the 1972 White Paper on the latest projections of pupil numbers would now require only 459,000 teachers in 1981.
(3) In March 1975 the Government declared their aim to ensure that there should be enough teachers to permit the elimination of classes over 30 in the early 1980s, the continuing expansion of education for the under-fives, and programmes of induction and in-service training; and announced their intention to plan for a teaching force reaching an upper limit of 480,000 to 490,000 by 1981.
(4) The White Paper "Public Expenditure to 1979–80" (Cmnd. 6393), provided for a teaching force in England and Wales, including the full-time equivalent of part-time teachers, of 464,000 in 1978–79. As the White Paper stated, the size of the teaching force after 1978–79 is to be further considered as the total number of school pupils declines. This is one of the important matters on which my right hon. Friend is currently seeking the advice of his Advisory Committee on the Supply and Training of Teachers. The estimated number of qualified teachers required to maintain existing staffing standards in 1981, on the current forecast of pupils for that year, is 449,000.