§ Mr. Teddy Taylorasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what estimate he has made of the number of qualified doctors who will be available in 1980 and 1985, respectively; and whether he estimates that there will be a shortage or surplus of doctors in these years.
§ Dr. OwenIt is estimated that in Great Britain there might be about 58,000 United Kingdom or Irish born doctors in active practice in 1980, and 65,000 in 1985, compared with some 53,000 in 1975. As to qualified doctors from overseas, in the past numbers entering have exceeded numbers leaving: this is not expected to continue. If numbers entering balance numbers leaving, the total supply of United Kingdom, Irish and overseas-born doctors could be about 82,000 in 1980 and 87,000 in 1985 compared with 77,000 at present. This would provide capacity for growth overall in the NHS and also for the gradual reduction in dependency on overseas doctors, by increasing the proportion of United Kingdom or Irish doctors.