§ Mr. Ridleyasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether, further to the Written Answer of 21st January 1976, Official Report, columns 491–2, in reply to a Question from the hon. Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) he will publish in a suitable form a detailed comparison between the allowances made in successive Public Expenditure White Papers for the movements in the five basic price indices of public expenditure for successive quinquennia and the outturn.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettAs I said in my reply to the hon. Member for Guildford (Mr. Howell) the detailed information is not readily available. I will write to the hon. Member about this rather complex matter.
§ Mr. Nottasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will publish in the Official Report, on the same date as the publication of the Public Expenditure White Paper, a table showing the implications for public sector manpower levels of the changes in public expenditure announced in the White Paper.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettAs stated in the White Paper, Part I, paragraph 7, public service manpower will be held broadly steady.
§ Mr. Lawsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer by what amount, either plus or minus, he expects public expenditure, including debt interest, following the cuts embodied in the latest Public Expenditure White Paper (Command Paper No. 6393) to differ from the figures estimated in the previous Public Expenditure White Paper (Command Paper No. 5879) in each of the following years: 1975–76, 1976–77, 1977–78, and 1978–79, respectively.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettThe differences are shown, on a comparable price basis, in Cmnd. 6393; table 4.6 for programmed expenditure, table 2.17 for debt interest.
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§ Mr. Lawsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what percentage increase he now expects in the total cost, at constant prices, of public expenditure next year, 1976–77, over this year, 1975–76; and how this compares with the percentage increase in the total cost at constant prices of public expenditure this year over last year, 1974–75.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettFigures for the three years concerned are to be found in Table 1.4 of Cmnd. 6393. Percentage changes in these figures are:
(1) 1975–76 to 1976–77 + 2.6 per cent.
(2) 1974–75 to 1975–76 + 3.9 per cent.
§ Mr. Lawsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his best estimate of total public expenditure in the calendar year 1976, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of gross domestic product, assuming a rise in gross domestic product between 1975 and 1976 of (a) 1 per cent., (b) 1½ per cent., and (c) 2 per cent.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettThe ratio of public expenditure to GDP in 1975–76 is estimated in Cmnd. 6393 (Part I, paragraph 25) as about 60 per cent. Public expenditure is estimated to increase in cost terms in 1976–77 by 2½ per cent. (Table 4.1.) It follows that the ratio would increase by about a quarter of a percentage point if GDP increased in volume by 2 per cent., and would increase by nearly 1 percentage point if GDP increased by only 1 per cent.
§ Mr. Lawsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) taking into account the cuts embodied in the latest Public Expenditure White Paper Command Paper No. 6393 what is his best estimate of the total increase in either actual or prospective, public expenditure, both including and excluding debt interest, since he became Chancellor of the Exchequer, for each of the following years: 1974–75, 1975–76, 1976–77 and 1977–78, respectively;
(2) what is his best estimate of the cumulative total of all changes in public expenditure announced or revealed since he became Chancellor of the Exchequer.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettThe information is to be found in the Public Expenditure White Papers, Table 3.13 of Cmnd. 5879 and tables 4.6 and 2.17 of Cmnd. 6393, 85W except that it was not practicable to distinguish among the changes other than announced policy changes between Cmnd. 5519 and Cmnd. 5879 those occuring before and those occuring after this Government took office.
§ Mr. Lawsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he still expects the forecast given by the Chief Secretary to the Treasury on 19th May 1975, Ninth Report of the Expenditure Committee for the Session 1974–75, page 32, questions 128 to 131, namely that public expenditure in 1976–77 would be below the level of 1974–75, to be fulfilled; and if not, why not.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettPublic expenditure in 1976–77 is now expected to be above the 1974–75 level. The figures are set out in the White Paper (Cmnd 6393), where table 4.6 shows detailed changes in programmes since the previous White Paper (Cmnd 5879), distinguishing the Budget reductions, and table 2.17 shows the increase in the estimate of debt interest.
§ Mr. Lawsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Written Answer given to the hon. Member for Blaby on 18th February 1976, setting out the proposed reductions in public expenditure in 1976–77 as published in the Official Report of 17th April 1975 but converted to 1975–76 outturn prices, if he will publish a comparable table, using the same price basis, setting out the proposed increases in public expenditure in 1976–77 announced or revealed since 17th April 1975.
§ Mr. Joel BarnettI will let the hon. Member have a reply as soon as possible.
§ Mr. Lawsonasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the figures would be if he were to convert the bottom line of table 3.1 of Command Paper No. 5879 Public Expenditure to 1978–79 into 1975–76 outturn prices (including the relative price effect).
§ Mr. Joel Barnett,pursuant to his reply [Official Report, 18th February 1976; Vol. 905, c. 755], gave the following information:
There is no single "correct" method of converting these figures to estimated 86W 1975–76 outturn prices including the relative price effect, but the following are reasonable estimates:
£m at 1975–76 prices 1970–71 41,831 1971–72 42,525 1972–73 44,664 1973–74 48,927 1974–75 53,900 1975–76 53,800 1976–77 54,650 1977–78 55,400 1978–79 56,650