§ Mr. Hurdasked the Secretary of State for the Environment whether he will publish the assumptions regarding the price of fuel, the rate of economic expansion, the growth of population and the development of future transport and public expenditure policies on which he based the predictions of traffic growth published in the Department's consultation document 279W on the proposed extension of the M40 motorway beyond Waterstock.
§ Mr. CarmichaelTraffic growth rates were derived from the TRRL Forecast of Vehicles and Traffic (1972 Revision). These forecasts made no explicit assumption about fuel costs; assumed in forecasting car traffic that the rate of economic growth would be similar to that experienced in the previous five years; assumed a growth rate of 3 per cent. per annum in GDP—for predicting freight traffic—and took population growth from the 1971 predictions by the Government Actuary.
The Department is at present assessing the effect on levels of traffic of new fuel prices, different rates of economic growth and the latest population forecasts. The present indication is that the new forecasts will not differ significantly from existing ones. We therefore consider it sensible, until the present review is finalised, to continue to use existing forecasts.
As to expenditure policies we are satisfied, as my right hon. Friend told my hon. Friend the Member for the Rhondda (Mr. Jones) on 17th June
that after making full allowance for a substantial shift of freight and passenger traffic from road to rail, a continuing national road programme is necessary on both economic and environmental grounds."—[Vol. 875, c 68.]