§ Mr. Tom Boardmanasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what he estimates will be the effect of the increases in domestic coal prices announced in his Budget speech on the retail price index by December 1974 and April 1975;
(2) what he estimates will be the effect of the increases in electricity prices, postal and telecommunication charges, and transport charges, respectively, announced in his Budget speech, on the retail price index by September and December 1974 and April 1975;
(3) what he estimates will be the effect of the increases in industrial coal prices announced in his Budget speech and those previously announced to take effect from 1st April 1974 on the retail price index by September and December 1974 and April 1975;
(4) What he estimates will be the effect of the increases in steel prices announced in his Budget speech on the retail price index by September and December 1974 1974 and April 1975.
§ Mr. DellAs I said during the debate on the Budget Statement, we estimate that by the end of the year the effect on the RPI of the nationalised industries' price increases will be about 2 per cent. Some of the figures for individual increases are provisional, in particular those which are pending applications to the Price Commission. Subject to this, the direct effects are calculated to total 1¼ per cent.:
per cent. Domestic electricity 0.7 Postal and telecommunications 0.2 Rail fares 0.1 Domestic coal 0.25 Estimates of the indirect effects are bound to be less specific both as to amount and timing, but my total of about 2 per cent. by the end of the year made allowance for them.
§ Mr. Norman Lamontasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what he estimates will be the effect of the increases in nationalised industry prices announced in his Budget speech on the retail price index by July, October and December 1974 and April 1975;
269W(2) what he estimates the effect of all the changes mentioned in his Budget speech will be on the retail price index by July, October and December 1974 and April 1975.
§ Mr. Dell,pursuant to his replies [OFFICIAL REPORT, 29th March 1974; Vol. 871, c. 228], gave the following information:
It is not possible to quantify the effect of all the changes mentioned in the Budget in relation to particular months, especially looking forward into 1975. The net effect of the indirect tax changes, food subsidies, rent freeze and increases in nationalised industries' prices by the end of 1974 is estimated to be roughly 1 per cent., as set out below. The increase in employers' national insurance contributions will have some indirect effect on the index but the size and timing of this effect is uncertain.
Approximate Effect on Retail Price Index by end 1974 per cent. Food subsidies -1.5 Rent freeze -0.7 -2.2 Indirect taxes 1.75 Nationalised industries' prices 2.0 3.75 Net effect 1.55