§ LORD SHACKLETONasked Her Majesty's Government:
On the basis of what percentage of unemployment Part IV of the Beveridge Report was written and on the basis of what percentage of unemployment the White Paper on Social Insurance (1944, Cmnd. 6550) was expressed to be founded.
EARL JELLICOEThe Beveridge Report (1942, Cmnd. 6404) published in November, 1942, at paragraph 441 on p. 164 contains the following passage
In framing the Social Security Budget in Part IV of this Report, it has been assumed that, in the industries now subject to insurance, the average rate of unemployment will in future be about 10 per cent. and that over 55WA the whole body of insured employees in Class I unemployment will average about 8½ per cent.The White Paper on Social Insurance (Cmnd. 6550) published in September, 1944, at paragraph 177, says:The Government have instructed him (the Government Actuary) to assume for the purpose of framing his financial estimates a notional figure of 8½ per cent. of insured persons out of work … This needs explanation. It does not mean that the Government expect that year in year out this will be the percentage figure … it was thought a matter of financial prudence to estimate a figure of 8½ per cent.
§ LORD SHACKLETONasked Her Majesty's Government:
What the present percentage of unemployment would be to-day in the industries subject to insurance at the time of the writing of the Beveridge Report.
EARL JELLICOEOwing to structural changes in industry since 1942 it would be difficult to provide a reliable estimate, and a disproportionate administrative effort would be required for it.
§ LORD SHACKLETONasked Her Majesty's Government:
What have been the assumptions as to the likely percentage of unemployment which have governed Government policy in this field, and how far this assumption is based on Beveridge's statement in Full Employment in a Free Society that 3 per cent appears to be a conservative rather than an unduly hopeful aim to set for the average unemployment rate of the future.
EARL JELLICOEAll Governments since the war have pursued a policy of full employment, but no Government since the war has stated publicly the precise unemployment assumptions underlying its policies.