§ Mr. Sproatasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he is now able to revise his forecast of the shortage of secondary teachers in the session 1973–74 following the raising of the school leaving age.
§ Mr. Gordon CampbellUntil the staffing studies to which I referred in my reply to my hon. Friend the Member for Perth and East Perthshire on 3rd February are completed and I have been able to consult with education authorities and teachers' associations on new standards I shall not be able to commit myself to a new basis for estimating teacher demand. The studies are, however, now sufficiently advanced to make it clear that the pupil/teacher ratio of 14.5: 1 which has been used for forecasting teacher demand is 167W too generous. Moreover, there are indications of improvement in the supply of teachers above the existing forecast. When these two factors are taken together my tentative conclusion is that the shortage after the leaving age is raised may not be significantly different from the present shortage.—[Vol. 810, c. 369–70.]