§ Mr. William Wilsonasked the Secretary of State for the Home Department (1) what is the estimated prison population, including borstal institutions and detention centres, for the years 1972 to 1978;
(2) what is the estimated number of licences for after-care which will be issued for the years 1972 to 1978;
(3) what is the estimated population of borstal institutions for the years 1972 to 1978.
§ Mr. MaudlingIt is difficult to make accurate predictions in view of the number of uncertainties involved. But taking account of recent trends, and in particular of the rate of increase in the number of persons convicted of indictable offences, it is estimated that the total population of all prison service establishments in 293W England and Wales in the years 1972–1975 might be as follows:
1972 … … 44,500 (7,000) 1973 … … 46,500 (7,500) 1974 … … 49,000 (8,000) 1975 … … 52,000 (8,500) The figures in brackets relate to the approximate number of borstal trainees.
It is similarly estimated that the number of persons subject to compulsory after-care following release from prison service establishments in England and Wales might be:
1972 … … 22,000 1973 … … 23,500 1974 … … 25,000 1975 … … 27,000 Estimates for the years beyond 1975 would be even more speculative. The Home Office is planning on the assumption that the prison population will continue to increase.