HL Deb 26 March 1970 vol 308 cc1519-21WA
LORD BALOGH

asked Her Majesty's Government:

  1. (1) What were the estimates of the Registrar General in 1960–65 and 1969 for the probable size of the population of the United Kingdom in 1980 and 1990.
  2. (2) What is the average delay in publishing the following statistical series:—
    • (a) the production index;

Base was the estimated total population Million persons projected population
Date of projection at mid- At mid-1980 At mid-1990
1961 … … … … … … 1960 58 61
1964 … … … … … … 1963 61 67
1965 … … … … … … 1964 61 67
1969 … … … … … … 1968 59 63
Projections for 1980 and 1990 were not made each year until 1964.

Revisions (per cent.) one year
Average delay after first publication
in publication 1964 1967
(a) Production Index … … … 6½ weeks +0.2 +0.2
(b) G.N.P. (Quarterly) … … … 12 weeks +0.9 +1.7
(c) Imports (c.i.f.) … … … 13½ days +0.4(l) (6)
Exports (f.o.b.) … … … — (1) (6)
Visible trade … … … (2) (2)
(d) Balance of payments 10 weeks:—
Total credits … … … –0.3 +0.9
Total debits … … … (6) +0.5
Basic balance … … … (2) (2)
(e) Wage rates … … … 3 weeks (3) (3)
(f) Rate of Weekly Earning … … … 8 weeks (4) (4)
(g) Employment—(1) … … … 7 months +0.6 Nil
(11) … … … 2 months +0.1 +1.1
(h) Building Starts … … … 3 weeks (5) (5)
(i) Fixed capital formation in:—
(i) dwellings … … … 16 weeks –0.1 +1.9
(ii) manufacturing … … … 11 weeks +0.6 +4.8
(iii) stocks … … … 16 weeks +6.9 +170.6
(1) Not including trade in diamonds in the Trade Accounts figures.

(b) the G.N.P. quarterly figures;

(c) import/export and balance of trade figures;

(d) balance of payments figures overall;

(e) wage rates;

(f) rate of weekly earnings;

(g) employment (i) in respect of the whole economy (ii) index of production industries;

(h) building starts;

(i) fixed capital investment (i) dwellings, (ii) manufacturing capital, (iii) stocks.

(3) What were the average percentage revisions after a year after the first publication for the years 1964, 1967 and 1969.

LORD BESWICK

The Government Actuary, in consultation with the Registrars General on the assumptions to be used for fertility and marital condition, mortality and migration (all of which assumptions are subject to amendment in the light of changing circumstances) made the following projections of the total population of the United Kingdom.

(2) Percentage changes are not meaningful. The absolute revisions were:—

1964 £ million 1967 £ million
Visible trade balance … … … … … —12 +24
Basic balance … … … … … … —24 +25

(3) Revisions to the wage rate index are usually small and are often due to wage agreements reached subsequently but with retrospective effect. There is no pattern to such changes and the average over the year would not be significant.

(4) Final figures are published one month after the provisional estimates. Revisions are very small.

(5) No revision was necessary.

(6) Less than 0.1 per cent.

Note: The extent of revisions to figures for 1969 cannot be stated until the end of 1970.