Teachers (Hansard, 2 July 1969)

§ Mr. MacArthur
asked the Secretary of State for Scotland (1) what estimate he has made of the number of teachers who will be required in 1972–73 in local authority primary schools, local authority secondary schools, grant-aided primary schools, and grant-aided secondary schools, respectively;
(2) what, according to the latest available official estimate submitted to him by education authorities and other school managers, is the shortage of certificated or registered teachers in public and grant-aided schools in Scotland.

§ Mr. Ross
The latest available estimate submitted to me by education authorities and other school managers was in December, 1967, when the total additional number of qualified teachers estimated to be required in order to eliminate oversize classes and replace unqualified teachers and teachers over age 70 was 3,868.
103W
The study of staffing in secondary schools published in April by my Department has cast doubt on the validity of such estimates. I hope that, as a result of further studies on which my Department is at present engaged I shall be able to establish more objective standards for assessing the demand for teachers. In

Thousands

Primary Secondary

Session Demand^* Supply† Surplus or shortage (-) Demand‡ Supply§ Surplus or shortage (-)

1969–70 … … 22.2 22.3 0.1 21.1 20.9 -0.2

1970–71 … … 22.2 23.0 0.8 21.8 21.7 -0.1

1971–72 … … 22.2 23.9 1.7 22.5 22.4 -0.1

1972–73 … … 22.0 24.7 2.7 23.9 23.1 -0.8

1973–74 … … 21.9 25.6 3.7 26.7 23.9 -2.8

1974.75 … … 21.7 26.5 4.8 27.2 24.7 -2.5

1975.76 … … 21.7 27.5 5.8 27.7 25.6 -2.1

^* Based on the elimination of classes which exceed the maximum of 45 pupils prescribed by the Schools (Scotland) Code. On the basis of education authorities' estimates of shortage, this implies, as in the 1967 forecast, a pupil/teacher ratio of 28.9:1; changes from the 1967 forecast are the result of revised estimates of school population.

† The main change from the 1967 forecast results from an increase in the rate of wastage among women teachers and the assumption, in line with emerging trends, of a relatively smaller proportion of graduates entering primary teaching.

‡ The 1967 forecast was based on education authorities' estimates of additional teachers required to provide adequate staffing. These implied that a pupil/teacher ratio of 13.5:1 would be required. The provisional ratio now adopted in the light of the recent staffing study is 14.5:1. This ratio derives from the provisional teacher loads suggested in Scottish Education Department Circular 714 which accompanied the Staffing Study with adjustment to take account of teachers in special schools, visiting teachers and teachers in grant-aided schools.

§ The main change from the 1967 forecast lies in the assumption, based on emerging trends, of a relatively greater proportion of graduates entering secondary teaching.

§ Mr. MacArthur
asked the Secretary of State for Scotland what was the ratio of pupils to teachers in primary schools and secondary schools managed by education authorities and managers of grant-aided

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968

Education Authority Schools

Primary (including nursery) 30.6 30.8

Secondary … … … 15.9 16.0

All schools … … … 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.6

Grant-Aided Schools

Primary (including nursery) 27.6 27.8

Secondary … … … 14.2 14.4

All schools … … … 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.4 17.4 17.5 16.9 17.0 17.2

Notes:
(1) Separate figures for primary and secondary before 1967 are not readily available.
(2) The figures are based on the numbers of full-time teachers only.

Thousands
			Primary	Secondary
Session	Demand^*	Supply†	Surplus or shortage (-)	Demand‡	Supply§	Surplus or shortage (-)
1969–70	…	…	22.2	22.3	0.1	21.1	20.9	-0.2
1970–71	…	…	22.2	23.0	0.8	21.8	21.7	-0.1
1971–72	…	…	22.2	23.9	1.7	22.5	22.4	-0.1
1972–73	…	…	22.0	24.7	2.7	23.9	23.1	-0.8
1973–74	…	…	21.9	25.6	3.7	26.7	23.9	-2.8
1974.75	…	…	21.7	26.5	4.8	27.2	24.7	-2.5
1975.76	…	…	21.7	27.5	5.8	27.7	25.6	-2.1
^* Based on the elimination of classes which exceed the maximum of 45 pupils prescribed by the Schools (Scotland) Code. On the basis of education authorities' estimates of shortage, this implies, as in the 1967 forecast, a pupil/teacher ratio of 28.9:1; changes from the 1967 forecast are the result of revised estimates of school population.
† The main change from the 1967 forecast results from an increase in the rate of wastage among women teachers and the assumption, in line with emerging trends, of a relatively smaller proportion of graduates entering primary teaching.
‡ The 1967 forecast was based on education authorities' estimates of additional teachers required to provide adequate staffing. These implied that a pupil/teacher ratio of 13.5:1 would be required. The provisional ratio now adopted in the light of the recent staffing study is 14.5:1. This ratio derives from the provisional teacher loads suggested in Scottish Education Department Circular 714 which accompanied the Staffing Study with adjustment to take account of teachers in special schools, visiting teachers and teachers in grant-aided schools.
§ The main change from the 1967 forecast lies in the assumption, based on emerging trends, of a relatively greater proportion of graduates entering secondary teaching.

	1960	1961	1962	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968
Education Authority Schools
Primary (including nursery)								30.6	30.8
Secondary	…	…	…								15.9	16.0
All schools	…	…	…	25.3	25.0	24.7	24.2	24.0	23.7	23.6	23.5	23.6
Grant-Aided Schools
Primary (including nursery)								27.6	27.8
Secondary	…	…	…								14.2	14.4
All schools	…	…	…	18.0	17.8	17.7	17.4	17.4	17.5	16.9	17.0	17.2