§ Mr. Wrightasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what is the basis of his estimate that there will be a surplus of 3,000 teachers by 1971; and if he will give the figures for the number of teachers who have qualified at colleges of education in each of the last five years, and his estimate of those expected to qualify in the next five years.
§ Mr. RossThe figure of 3,000 relates to primary teachers only. Estimates are based on recent trends in recruitment and wastage and forecasts of the numbers of pupils; they assume present staffing standards and the present pattern of distribution of teachers between the primary and secondary sectors.
The following table gives the numbers of persons qualifying as primary or secondary teachers on completing college 218W of education courses in the years 1963 to 1967 and the numbers expected to do so in the next five years:
Actual 1963 2,679 1964 2,889 1965 3,141 1966 3,384 1967 3,642
Forecast 1968 4,360 1969 4,360 1970 5,060 1971 5,320 1972 5,560