§ Mr. Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence if he will make a statement regarding the meteorological situation which gave rise to the widespread damage and loss of life in Scotland on the night of Sunday, 14th January; if he is satisfied with the forecast issued; and what further steps were taken to inform the public that a dangerous situation was about to occur.
§ Mr. Merlyn Rees:The gale which gave rise to the widespread damage and loss of life in Scotland in the early hours of Monday, 15th January, was caused by a depression which at 6 a.m. on Sunday, 14th January, was situated in mid-Atlantic. It subsequently moved very rapidly—at about 50 knots—to reach the Outer Hebrides by midnight. It deepened as it travelled and brought winds which were particularly strong on its Southern flank. This effect was probably heightened locally by the topography of the Forth and Clyde valleys.
The gale reached its peak in Western Scotland between about 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. on 15th January. The mean wind speed recorded in Glasgow was about 60 m.p.h. This was accurately forecast. It is usual for gusts of wind lasting perhaps only a few seconds to exceed the mean strength, but there is a difficulty in forecasting the extreme strength of such gusts.
The Central Forecast Office issued gale warnings for the Glasgow area amongst others at 10 a.m. on 14th January, when force 8 gales (up to 46 m.p.h.) were forecast, and at 10.30 p.m. on the same day, when a warning of force 10 winds (up to 63 m.p.h.) within the next six hours was given. From midday on 14th January every radio and television forecast for Scotland for the general public for the relevant period predicted gales, especially on the West coast. In addition gale warnings were broadcast to shipping by the B.B.C. and G.P.O. coastal radio, and coast guards and others who provide visual signals, such as cones or lights, were also warned. Some land based authorities in the Glasgow area subscribe to the gale warning service, and the Glasgow Weather Centre gave them warnings during the afternoon and evening of 14th January.