Earl of Dalkeithasked the Secretary of State for Education and Science (1) what additional capital expenditure, at present-day prices, he estimates will be necessary over the next 33 years in order to provide the required school accommodation for a 20 million person increase in the United Kingdom's population by the year 2000, as forecast by the Registrar General; and how many extra teachers he estimates will be needed to cope with the larger school population;
(2) what additional acreage of farmland he estimates it will be desirable to turn into use as playing fields by the turn of the century in order to meet the requirements of the 20 million person increase in the population of the United Kingdom as predicted by the Registrar General by the year 2000.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the Secretary of State for Scotland (1) what estimate he has made of the acreage of farmland that will require to be reallocated to other uses in order to ensure a desirable standard of housing and to provide all the roads, factories and other facilities 141W regarded as being necessary in a modern community on the basis of a population in Scotland of the present size;
(2) what he estimates the population of Scotland will be by the year 2000 on the basis of the Registrar General's prediction that the population of the United Kingdom will rise by some 20 million persons over the next 33 years.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the President of the Board of Trade what is the best estimate he can make of the annual cost of importing timber and processed timber of all forms, including paper and pulp, at present-day prices in the year 2000, assuming the same per capita increase in consumption as over the past 10 years and on the basis of a 20 million person increase in the United Kingdom population, as forecast by the Registrar General by the turn of the century.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the Minister of Health what additional capital expenditure he estimates will be necessary over the next 33 years to provide hospital accommodation for the needs of an extra 20 million persons estimated by the Registrar General to be living in the United Kingdom by the year 2000; and how many extra doctors, dentists and nurses he estimates will be required.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what calculation he has made of the additional acreage of farmland that will be lost to agricultural use by the turn of the century in order to meet the requirements of houses, schools, gardens, parks, playing fields, urban roads, rural roads, airports and sewage works of a population that the Registrar General predicts will increase by some 20 million over the next 33 years; and assuming that average quality arable land is principally affected, what will be the annual value of the agricultural produce lost thereby at present day prices.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the Minister of Power what additional capital expenditure he estimates will be needed over the next 33 years, at present day prices, to satisfy the demands for power by the extra 20 million persons forecast by the Registrar General to be living in the United Kingdom by the turn of the century.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the Minister of Transport what estimate she has made of 142W the number of private motor cars that will be in use in the United Kingdom by the year 2000 on the basis of the Registrar General's forecast of a 20 million person increase in the population by the turn of the century; what additional acreage of land will have to be devoted to providing for their road needs; and what will be the cost at present-day prices of providing these roads.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the Minister of Housing and Local Government (1) what estimate he has made at present-day prices of the capital investment required over the next 33 years to provide an improved standard of housing for a population that will have risen by 20 million persons by the turn of the century in accordance with official forecasts;
(2) what additional area of land he estimates will have to be made available for factory space by the year 2000 so as to ensure full employment for a population which the Registrar General forecasts will be 20 million greater than at present by the turn of the century, and assuming that the same rate of progress in changing over to new methods of production involving automation is maintained over the next 33 years as in the past 10 years.
Earl of Dalkeithasked the Minister of Social Security what will be the total cost of family allowances in the year 2000 at present day values on the assumption of the Registrar General's prediction of a 20 million person increase in the United Kingdom's population over the next 33 years, and assuming that the level of the allowances is maintained as at present.
§ Mr. ShoreI have been asked to reply.
The Government are engaged on studies to estimate demands on resources in the period fifteen years or so ahead; and, for certain purposes, estimates are being made up to the year 2000. But it would be misleading to give estimates of the additional demands arising from the growth of population up to the year 2000. Although population increase is an important factor determining the demand for land, for imports, for social and productive investment, and for professional services, there are other factors which cannot be estimated. Thus the demand for capital investment in energy 143W will be strongly influenced by technological advance both in manufacturing industry and in power supply; and the demand for hospitals will depend upon advances in medicine and changes in the pattern of health care, as well as the growth of population. Moreover, the projected increase in the population of 20 million by the year 2000 is itself subject a wide margin of error and the latest estimate is of an increase of 17 million not 20 million.