HC Deb 20 December 1967 vol 756 cc447-9W
Mr. Ellis

asked the Secretary of State for Defence when computers were introduced in the Meteorological Office to aid in the production of weather forecasts; and what was the cost.

Mr. Merlyn Rees:

The Meteorological Office used a Ferranti Mercury computer to produce forecast pressure charts on a routine basis from January, 1959 to September, 1964. These charts were used primarily for research purposes, but subject to research needs they were made available for the guidance of operational forecasters. This computer was replaced by an English Electric KDF 9, which has been producing forecast pressure charts for regular operational use since July, 1965, initially on an experimental basis. It is also used for other purposes e.g. atmospheric research, long-range forecasting and climatological studies. The capital costs of these computers and certain ancillary equipment were £90,000 and £475,000 respectively.

Mr. Ellis

asked the Secretary of State for Defence what estimates he has made of the effect of the introduction of computers has had on the accuracy of weather forecasts in the Meteorological Office; and what are the figures.

Mr. Merlyn Rees:

Computed charts have not yet replaced for all purposes those produced by traditional methods, and it is too early to form a proper judgment of their effect on the accuracy of weather forecasts.

Mr. Ellis

asked the Secretary of State for Defence how many special warnings have been transmitted to the general public by radio and television month by month over the preceding year issued by the Meteorological Office at nonscheduled times.

Mr. Merlyn Rees:

With the cooperation of the broadcasting authorities warnings of actual or imminent weather conditions which might endanger life or cause considerable inconvenience to a large number of people are broadcast on Radio 2, B.B.C. 1 and Independent Television, as appropriate, in addition to the normal weather forecasts. The number of such warnings broadcast each month this year was:

January 1
February 0
March 0
April 0
May 2
June 2
July 0
August 2
September 5
October 6
November 10
December (until 18th) 6

The small number issued early in the year was a reflection of the mildness of the winter.

Mr. Ellis

asked the Secretary of State for Defence what action he has taken to improve abnormal hours allowance payable to scientific assistants in the Meteorological Office engaged in roster work.

Mr. Merlyn Rees:

Discussions have been taking place with the staff association concerned.

Mr. Ellis

asked the Secretary of State for Defence what is the shortfall in the assistant scientific grade in the Meteorological Office at this date.

Mr. Merlyn Rees:

The shortage of scientific assistants at 1st December, 1967, was 165 or about 13 per cent. of the establishment.

Mr. Ellis

asked the Secretary of State for Defence what is the overall accuracy of forecasts issued in the evening and morning over the period year by year since the present system of checking forecasts was started in the Meteorological Office.

Mr. Merlyn Rees:

The figures are:

1755 forecast per cent. 0755 forecast per cent.
1963–64 76 83
1964–65 77 84
1965–66 77 84
1966–67 77 85

The present checking system started in August, 1963. The figures refer to the twelve-month periods from August to July.

Mr. Ellis

asked the Secretary of State for Defence if he will supply the hon. Member for Bristol, North-West with a copy of the staff instruction issued to staff engaged in checking forecasts for accuracy.

Mr. Merlyn Rees:

Yes. I will write to the hon. Member.