§ Mr. Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence what was the Press forecast issued by the Central Forecast Office at 1755 hours on 3rd November for the South-West of England in view of the actual weather; and whether this forecast was assessed as good, moderate or bad.
§ Mr. Merlyn ReesThe forecast issued at 1755 hours on 3rd November was for broadcasting purposes and I gave the text of this in my Answer to the hon. Member326W on 10th November. The forecast for South-West England issued to the Press at 1900 hours was:—
Becoming cloudy with outbreaks of rain. Winds light and variable, becoming southerly, moderate. Cold, maximum 8° Centigrade (46° Fahrenheit)".This forecast was also assessed as moderate.—[Vol. 735, c. 355.]
§ Mr. Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence what instructions are issued to Meteorological Office staff engaged in checking forecasts for their guidance.
§ Mr. Merlyn ReesMeteorological Office staff are instructed to carry out extensive checks on the forecasts issued both for aviation and other purposes. The system of checking is adapted to the type of work to be checked and to the particular meteorological variables in question.
For daily forecasting purposes the United Kingdom is divided into seven regions. The elements of each regional forecast are subsequently checked against the actual nature of the weather (e.g. wet, stormy or foggy), the wind, the cloud amount and the maximum temperature. The accuracy of each forecast element is assessed as good, moderate or bad by Meteorological Office staff in each region. The judges are staff at offices other than those which make the forecasts and have no hand in their making. No system of checking is perfect, but the judges try to assess the forecasts as intelligent laymen, and the results give a reasonable guide to the usefulness of the forecasts to the public. The overall accuracy of forecasts is about 75 per cent. for those issued at 5.55 p.m. for the following day and about 80 per cent. for those issued at 7.55 a.m. for the same day.