§ Mr. Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence what weather forecast was issued by his Deparment at 17.55 hours on Thursday 3rd November for South-West England; what forecast was issued at 07.55 hours on Friday 4th November; and, in view of actual weather, if the forecasts were assessed as good, moderate or bad.
§ Mr. Merlyn ReesThe forecast issued at 17.55 hours on 3rd November for South-West England for the following day was
During the day cloud will increase and thicken, and outbreaks of rain are increasingly likely after mid-day, especially in the Bristol Channel area and Gloucestershire.The forecast issued for the South West region at 07.55 on 4th November stated:
Patches of freezing fog in parts of Somerset, North Dorset, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Hampshire will clear during the morning as cloudy weather with light rain or drizzle in places spreads from the west. An area of more general rain, which may be heavy in places, is expected to reach the Isles of Scilly, Cornwall and parts of Devon by mid-day, and then move eastwards across the remainder of the region during the afternoon. The rain may be preceded by sleet on the higher ground and hills.Amounts of rainfall are particularly difficult to predict, especially over an area as small as within about 40 miles of Bristol, in which the heaviest rain was concentrated on 4th and 5th November. Subject to this, the overall assessment of these forecasts, taking all weather elements into account, is moderate for the earlier one and good for the later one.
§ Mr. Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence what warnings of excessive 356W rainfall were issued on Friday 4th November; to whom they were issued; and at what times they were issued.
§ Mr. Merlyn ReesShortly after 09.00 hours on 4th November the Meteorological Office at Plymouth warned the river authorities of Somerset and Devon by telephone that continuous rain, moderate to heavy, could be expected during the morning and showers thereafter. At about 16.30 the Meteorological Office at Gloucester warned the Usk and the Wye River Boards that the rain then in their areas would soon become heavy at times, and would continue on and off through the evening and most of the night.
§ Mr. Ellisasked the Secretary of State for Defence what forecast was issued at 17.55 hours on Friday 4th November for South-West England; and whether any mention of excessive rainfall and danger of flooding was made.
§ Mr. Merlyn ReesThe forecast for South-West England, issued at 1755 hours on Friday, 4th November, stated
The Channel Islands, Somerset, East Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Hampshire will have cloudy weather with periods of rain, moderate or heavy at times, this evening. Somewhat clearer weather, although still mainly cloudy with occasional showers, which has reached the Isles of Scilly, Cornwall and western parts of Devon, will extend eastwards to all areas by morning. Some of the showers will be heavy and thundery, and may turn to hail at times.The term "excessive rainfall", which implies a comparison with some accepted yardstick, is not used in weather forecasts. The Meteorological Office does not issue flood warnings, since rain is only one of a number of factors which may cause flooding. The Office does, however, inform river authorities of expected rainfall.