§ Sir H. Williamsasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he can furnish an estimate of the increased permanent expenditure in a post-war year as compared with 1939, arising, respectively, out of the interest on the National Debt to be created up to 31st March, 1945; social legislation enacted since 1939; pensions arising out of the present war; Treasury contributions to the War Damage Fund; any other commitments incurred since 1939.
§ Sir J. Andersonpursuant to his reply [OFFICIAL REPORT, 5th October, 1944, 812W Vol. 403, c. 1148] supplied the following statement
I. The annual interest charge on the estimated National Debt at 31st March, 1945, may be expected to exceed the charge in 1939 by approximately £230,000,000
II. The increase in the permanent annual cost to the Exchequer in the field of social services (insurance, pensions, education, etc.), due to legislation enacted since 1939 and, except where otherwise stated, on the basis of the estimates published when the relevant legislation was introduced, is as follows:
£ millions. Contributory Pensions (beginning 1946) 4 (rising to 7) Unemployment Insurance—cost to the Exchequer 4 Health Insurance Benefits—Exchequer contribution 1¼ Disabled Persons (Employment) Act 3 Supplementary Pensions (1944 cost) 55 Education 7¾ (rising to 58) Housing (the rate of subsidy will not be fixed until costs of building can be estimated).
III. The ultimate cost of pensions arising out of the present war cannot yet be estimated as it clearly depends upon the future course of the war.
IV. With regard to War Damage, I would refer my hon. Friend to the answer given to my hon. Friend the Member for Tamworth (Sir J. Mellor) on 26th September. It is not possible at present to form a reliable estimate of the total cost of War Damage. It is still less possible to estimate its effect on post-war budgets, as that depends on how far it will have been met before the war ends, at what rate it will fall to be met thereafter, and whether, or to what extent, it will be met out of borrowing instead of out of current revenue.
V. Besides the commitments in Head II which arise under legislation which is now on the statute book, there are other items on which proposals have been submitted to Parliament of which the chief are:
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£ millions. Social Insurance and Allied Services(see Tables VI and VII on pages 53 and 55 of Cmd. 6550) 74 (rising to 279) Industrial Injury Insurance (see paragraphs 34 and 47 of Cmd. 6551) 4 School Meals and Milk (see paragraph 51 of Cmd. 6550)—increase over pre-war cost 9 (rising to 59) Trunk Roads 2 Broadly speaking, these costs are additional to those given under Head II.
VI. The above figures do not include such general items as increased costs of administration, etc., which cannot at present be estimated; nor do they include the cost of certain matters arising out of the change-over from war to peace conditions which, like the cost of war damage, may persist for several years after the war but are not permanent in character. The figures also exclude the Exchequer cost of reconstruction of war damaged areas; see financial memorandum prefaced to the Town and Country Planning Bill, page IV. This cost is estimated at £50,000,000 to cover a two-year period and thereafter diminishes.