HC Deb 13 September 2004 vol 424 cc1398-400W
Mr. Anthony D. Wright

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what estimate he has made of the average weekly pension in Great Yarmouth in each year since 1997 if pensions had been linked to earnings. [186701]

Malcolm Wicks

The information is not available in the format requested. However, such information as is available is in the table.

As at April each year Average State Pension in Great Yarmouth Average State Pension in Great Yarmouth with basic State Pension uprated by earnings
1999 68.90 70.55
2000 69.95 73.65
2001 75.60 77.35
2002 78.65 81.15
2003 81.30 84.70
1. The change in the overall rate of basic State Pension for any given year is estimated by comparing the actual maximum rate of basic State Pension for that year with the rate if earnings uprating had been in place. The average recorded basic State Pension in Great Yarmouth for each individual year is then increased proportionately to reflect the difference.
2. It is assumed that basic State Pension was uprated by earnings from 1998 onwards. It is assumed that additional State Pension would still be uprated in line with prices. The average additional State Pension in Great Yarmouth each year is then added to the adjusted average basic amount to provide the total average State Pension.
3. Figures for actual State Pension amounts are taken from 5 per cent. sample of September's DWP administrative data for the year shown and are therefore subject to a high degree of sampling variation.
4. Figures for individual parliamentary constituencies are not available prior to 1999.
5. The figures shown in the table are weekly amounts rounded to the nearest 5p.

Mr. Denham

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what assessment he has made of the additional costs in(a) 2015, (b) 2025, (c) 2035 and (d) 2045 of having a state second pension accrual rate that would guarantee all workers with 40 years of full-time employment sufficient pension to make them ineligible at (i) age 75 and (ii) retirement for the guarantee part of the pension credit if the basic state pension were to be uprated in line with (A) prices, (B) earnings and (C) the average of earnings and prices [186851]

Malcolm Wicks

It is estimated that for a single person retiring in 2045, in order for the combined value of basic State Pension (BSP) and State Second Pension (S2P) to exceed the level of the Guarantee Credit, the additional spending on state pension required is as follows.

(A) Under price uprating of the basic State Pension
£ billion
2015 2025 2035 2045
(i) At age 75 S2P 0.8 3.5 9.2 19.6
(ii) At retirement S2P 0.3 1.5 3.9 8.2

(B) Under earnings uprating of the basic State Pension
£ billion
2015 2025 2035 2045
() At age 75 S2P
(ii) At retirement S2P
BSP 9.6 23.7 45.8 69.3
No change to S2P accrual or spending would be required under part B.

(C) Under average of earnings and price uprating of the basic State Pension
£ billion
2015 2025 2035 2045
(i) At age 75 S2P 0.4 1.5 3.9 8.3
(ii) At retirement S2P
BSP 4.1 9.3 17.1 24.4
1. No change to S2P accrual or spending would be required under part C ii.
2. Figures are costs for GB and Overseas in 2004–05 price terms, using the GDP deflator index, rounded to the nearest £100 million.
3. Costs are for additional spending on Basic and State Second Pension and do not include any increased income tax revenue or savings in income related benefits. Costs are estimated by the Government Actuary's Department and are consistent with Budget 2004 assumptions and use 2002 based population projections. Accrual rates were calculated by the Department.
4. Except where stated, current policy on calculation and uprating of benefits is assumed to continue and long-term assumptions are in line with those for budget 2004. The guarantee credit is therefore increased in line with average earnings.
5. Increasing basic State Pension by more than prices as in parts B and C of this question will result in additional spending on basic State Pension.
6. Costs also exclude any changes that might occur to contracting out rebates.

Mr. Willetts

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what the assumptions are for the number and percentage of eligible pensioners taking tip pension credit that underlie his pensioner benefit expenditure projections for(a) 2003–04, (b) 2013–14, (c) 2023–24, (d) 2033–34, (e) 2043–44 and (f) 2053–54. [187352]

Malcolm Wicks

The Government do not currently produce long-term projections of the pension credit caseload. In the interests of fiscal propriety they do issue long-term expenditure projections. Tabled are the caseloads underlying the projected expenditure.

Numbers of pensioner households claiming pension credit underlying the long-term projections of pensioner benefit expenditure art as follows:

2010 3,300,000
2020 3,900,000
2030 5,000,000
2040 5,900,000
2050 6,100,000

These figures represent take-up of around 75 per cent., corresponding to the achievement of the PSA target of 3,000,000 pension credit households by 2006.

Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100,000 cases, are subject to a wide margin of error and should be used only as broad indications of the likely caseload.

The methodology behind the long-term projections was described in more detail in "The Pension Credit: Long-term Projections", published by the Department in January 2002. A projected growth rate in pension credit spending is derived by applying income growth assumptions and demography projections to the sample pensioner population in the Department's Policy Simulation Model. This growth rate is applied to the medium-term forecast of pension credit expenditure.

"The Pension Credit: Long-term Projections" (ref: DWP-PCP-2) is available in the Library and can be found on the internet at: www.dwp.gov.uk/publications/dwp/2002/pencred/pencred.pdf