§ Laura MoffattTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what estimate he has made of the percentage of people using the NHS in(a) 2005 and (b) 2010 who will be above retirement age. [165878]
§ Mr. HuttonThe Government Actuary's Department forecasts that in 2005 16 per cent. of the population will be aged 65 or over, and in 2010, 17 per cent.
Older people will typically make greater use of the national health service (NHS). In 2000–01 people aged 65 or over accounted for approximately 41 per cent. of total expenditure, despite accounting for only 16 per cent. of the population (Office for National Statistics). Assuming the same pattern of use, a similar proportion of NHS expenditure will be accounted for by patients aged over 65 in 2005, with perhaps a small rise by 2010. Derek Wanless, in his interim report on the long-term demographic and medical trends that will affect the health service, "Securing our future health: taking a long-term view", November 2001, commented that "the impact of ageing on future expenditure is likely to be comparatively small compared to other cost drivers".