§ Mr. DalyellTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs pursuant to the then Under-Secretary of State's letter 167650/MM of 26 June 2002, what the latest evaluation is of the work done to establish the relationship between badgers and bovine TB; and if she will make a statement. [177891]
§ Mr. Bradshaw[holding answer 15 June 2004]: The Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB (ISG) carried out an interim analysis of Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) data collected up to the end of August 2003. The analysis revealed that there was an increased risk of TB breakdowns in cattle herds occurring in trial areas where "reactive" culling had taken place, compared to the related "survey only" (control) areas1.
As a result of this finding, Ministers suspended culling operations in the "reactive" treatment areas of the RBCT from November 2003, because to continue would have meant the unnecessary culling of badgers, leading to an increased risk of TB in cattle herds. Such reactive culling has effectively been ruled out as a TB control option.
Culling operations continue in "proactive" treatment areas, where more widespread and repeated trapping takes place. The ISG has given assurances that Ministers will be informed as soon as the data yield a scientifically significant result. The ISG estimate that the RBCT will be completed in 2006.
On 6 April, a report was published from an Independent Review Panel, which reviewed the progress of the RBCT and associated research, as part of a wider review of Defra's science. The ISG do not agree with all aspects of this report, and Ministers are considering its recommendations, particularly where the ISG does not concur.
1 The increase, compared to survey-only areas, was estimated to be 27 per cent. with 95 per cent. confidence that the increase lies between 4.8 per cent. and 53 per cent. A more conservative analysis would give would give confidence limits of between a 2.4 per cent. decrease and 65 per cent. increase. The ISG's most recent analysis of data collected to mid-February indicated an increase of 28 per cent. with confidence limits of between 1.1 per cent. and 62 per cent. using the wider confidence limits recommended by the Independent Review Panel.