§ Mr. Maude
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport what estimate he has made of the total demand for air travel in the UK in 2060, expressed as a multiple of the present number of passengers using Heathrow, on the basis of the forecast rates of growth used to calculate the economic benefits of various runway options in the consultation on the Future of Air Transport. 
§ Dr. Howells
The forecasts presented in the consultation document, "The Future Development of Air Transport in the United Kingdom: South East", 2002, extended to 2030. No forecast has been made of the total demand for air travel in the UK in 2060. However, for the purposes of the analysis of economic benefits of runway options, the forecasts were projected forward to 2060, assuming a 50 per cent. increase in demand from 2030 to 2060.540W
§ Dr. Howells
The mid point forecasts in the consultation document: The Future Development of Air Transport in the United Kingdom-South East, assumed an underlying trend reduction in air fares of I per cent. per annum. In addition to this, if no new runways were built in the South East, passengers at Heathrow would pay a fare premium of £67.50 on a single journey in 2030. This fare premium would be higher if airport capacity outside the South East was also constrained, but no estimate has been made of this. The combined effect of these two factors would be an 18 per cent. increase in the cost of air travel in this case.