Pension Credit (Hansard, 25 March 2003)

§ Mr. O'Hara
To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what the estimated expenditure will be on pension credit in 2003–04; and what he estimates this would be if it were claimed by all those entitled to the benefit. [103635]

§ Mr. McCartney
Pension credit will replace the minimum income guarantee from 6 October 2003. Combined expenditure on the MIG and pension credit for the financial year 2003–04 is estimated to be around £5.3 billion (in cash terms). This is projected to rise to around £6.2 billion in 2004–05 (in cash terms).
The Department does not produce detailed forecasts of expenditure on the basis of different levels of take-up. However as an indication of the likely expenditure on pension credit, if all those entitled claimed it, DWP simulations suggest spending might be in the region of £7.5 billion for 2004–05. There is likely to be a wide margin of error around this estimate as it is based on survey data, which relies on individual responses and may be subject to non-response bias.

§ Mr. O'Hara
To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions how many and what proportion of(a) single men, (b) single women and (c) couples are expected to be entitled to pension credit in October 2003; and how many of these will be entitled to (i) guarantee credit alone, (ii) savings credit alone and (iii) both guarantee and savings credit. [103636]

§ Mr. McCartney
The information requested is given is in the tables.

Table 1: Number and proportion of single men, single women and couples that are expected to be entitled to pension credit in October 2003

Numbers entitled to pension credit in millions Proportion (percentage)

Single male 0.60 49

Single female 1.95 61

Couple 1.05 26

Table 2: Number of single men, single women and couples that will be entitled to the guarantee credit alone, savings credit alone and both guarantee and savings credit

Numbers in millions Guarantee credit Guarantee and savings credit Savings credit Total

Single male 0.15 0.2 0.20 0.60

Single female 0.45 1.0 0.55 1.95

Couple 0.30 0.3 0.45 1.05

Notes:
1. The estimates were calculated for all pensioners using the Department's Policy Simulation Model based on the Family Resource Survey data for 2000–01 projected forward to 2003–04. This shows around 3.6 million households entitled to pension credit.
174W
2. The Policy Simulation Model excludes all pensioners in nursing or residential care homes. This is because the Family Resource Survey data do not contain information on these cases. We estimate that just over 200,000 pensioners in care homes will be entitled to pension credit. This means that total pension credit entitlement for 2003–C4 is estimated to be about 3.8 million households.
3. The figures in the tables were rounded to the nearest 50,000 cases. The figures may not add up due to rounding.

Table 1: Number and proportion of single men, single women and couples that are expected to be entitled to pension credit in October 2003
	Numbers entitled to pension credit in millions	Proportion (percentage)
Single male	0.60	49
Single female	1.95	61
Couple	1.05	26

Table 2: Number of single men, single women and couples that will be entitled to the guarantee credit alone, savings credit alone and both guarantee and savings credit
Numbers in millions	Guarantee credit	Guarantee and savings credit	Savings credit	Total
Single male	0.15	0.2	0.20	0.60
Single female	0.45	1.0	0.55	1.95
Couple	0.30	0.3	0.45	1.05